BASELINE RESULTS

1. List the Democratic candidate's baseline vote as provided in the table in the Determining the Election Results section.

CAMPAIGN EFFECTS - GENERAL

***Commercials

2a. List the average rating for the Democratic candidate's commercials.

2b. List the average rating for the Republican candidate's commercials.

2c. Take the number written on line 2a and subtract the number written on line 2b. This may be a negative number if the Democrat's commercials are worse than the Republican's commercials.

2d. Take the number written on line 2c and multiply by four.

***Stump Speeches

3a. List the average rating for the Democratic candidate's stump speeches.

3b. List the average rating for the Republican candidate's stump speeches.

3c. Take the number written on line 3a and subtract the number written on line 3b. This may be a negative number if the Democrat's stump speeches are worse than the Republican's stump speeches.

3d. Take the number written on line 3c and multiply by three.

***Debates

4a. List the total score for the Democratic candidate in the debate.

4b. List the total score for the Republican candidate in the debate.

4c. Take the number written on line 4a and subtract the number written on line 4b. This may be a negative number if the Democrat's debate performance was judged worse than the Republican's debate performance.

4d. Take the number written on line 4c and multiply it by three.

4e. Take the number written on line 4d and divide it by five.

***Total campaign effects

5a. Add the numbers written on lines 2d, 3d, and 4e.

5b. Divide the number written on line 5a by 10. This is the total adjustment made in this section to the Democrat's baseline vote listed in line 1.

CAMPAIGN EFFECTS - CASE-SPECIFIC ITEMS

6a. List the total score for this section as provided by the case-specific items.

6b. Subtract 12 from the number listed in line 6a. This may yield a negative number.

6c. Divide the number written on line 6b by 2. This is the total adjustment made in this section to the Democrat's baseline vote listed in line 1.

RANDOM EFFECTS

7. Go to the table of random numbers, randomly select one of the numbers, and place it on this line. This is the random effect that will be used as an adjustment to the Democrat's baseline vote listed in line 1.

FINAL TOTALS

8. Take the following figures and add them: lines 1, 5b, 6c, and 7. These figures become the vote total earned by the Democratic candidate. If it is greater than 50, the Democrat wins. If it is less than 50, the Republican wins. If it is equal to exactly 50, the election is a virtual dead heat. Tell the students that a recount is taking place, go into the faculty lounge, flip a coin to determine the winner (it's as accurate a way as any to decide such a close election), and announce who won.