The District
 The Democrat
 The Republican
 The Analysts
 How to Teach this Case

The District
This district is so diverse that it is every incumbent's nightmare. Thirty years ago, this district was basically urban (centered around the city of Heartland) with some smaller pieces of suburbia. As the city has shrunk over the last twenty years, the district has twice been redistricted so that it now includes almost an even split of urban and suburban voters. Any ideology can claim to have some support within the district, but nobody has been able to tame it. Thus, this is one of the most volatile and competitive districts in the country, and always attracts the attention of the national parties.

Within the last twelve years, this district has been represented in succession by a conservative Republican who championed right-to-life positions, a liberal Democrat who urged higher taxes and redistributive social spending, a fiscally conservative yet socially moderate Republican, and a staunchly pro-union Democrat. Each of these incumbents either met with defeat or chose to abandon this district to make a run for higher office. In the last election, Tony DeMarco, a pro-union Democrat, was reelected for a second term with 52% of the vote. For DeMarco, this actually represented an improvement over his first election, when he won by 801 votes. DeMarco is retiring from his congressional seat to wage a long-shot campaign for governor. This year, both parties held competitive primaries and in the end chose true ideologues to run for this seat.

The Democrat - Mary Rodriguez
The Democrats have nominated State Representative Mary Rodriguez, 33, a Latina woman who has held elective office since she graduated from college. After 4 years on the Heartland City Council, Rodriguez ran for the state house and was victorious. She is giving up a safe district in the state house to seek this congressional seat. She describes herself as "a woman who believes that, when run effectively, government can help to solve societal problems. Government is not the enemy."

Rodriguez is a liberal. She favors higher taxes on the wealthy and redistributing income to the poorer sections of the country. She is pro-environment, which resonates well with the "green" elements in the suburbs. She favors increased federal involvement in health care - she has commented that "national health insurance is the only long-term solution and it is just a matter of time until people see that." Rodriguez is a very strong affirmative action supporter; in college, she was arrested at a pro-affirmative action rally on campus. Rodriguez tries to downplay her pro-choice stand on abortion, as it runs the risk of offending the heavily Catholic Latino constituency living in the city of Heartland.

The Republican - Kurt Bullard
For the Republicans, the nomination went to Kurt Bullard, 56, a vice-president with Olsen Furniture, one of the state's largest furniture companies (and the biggest single employer in the district). Bullard has never run for public office before. He was moved to run by what he feels are anti-business policies being passed by the Democrats. He also strongly opposes abortion and affirmative action - "I overcame obstacles and made it without preferential treatment in hiring. That's the American way." He derides Rodriguez' positions on healthcare as advocating "socialized medicine."

Bullard is also proud to call himself a "citizen legislator." In a recent newspaper interview, he attempted to remind voters that "there is a world out there outside of government service. My opponent has been sponging off the government since she graduated from college." Bullard views it as his job to "give something back" by taking time off from running his business to serve in Congress. He has pledged to serve no more than three terms in Congress and then return home.

The Analysts
Political analyst Sam Balish describes the race as follows: This is a clear-cut ideological battle between two candidates who each seem to have a decent shot of winning. The district is split in such a way that either candidate could win this one. I think the affirmative action issue slightly favors Bullard, especially given Rodriguez's extremism on the issue. The environment favors Rodriguez, as this is one issue on which the suburban voters look like liberals. Income redistribution seems an evenly split issue in the district. Abortion is the wildcard. Rodriguez has a whole bunch of Catholic voters in the city who are inclined to support her except for on the abortion issue. If she can hold their votes, I think she wins. If not, Bullard could take this. Toss-up.

Democratic Party consultant Barry Simon has offered the following advice to the Rodriguez campaign: We need to do two things. First, we need to energize our base. We must strongly reach out to the urban voters on affirmative action, the environment, health care, and liberal income redistribution policies. This also involves minimizing the prominence of abortion for Catholic voters. Second, we need to grab the wedge issues that will pull the suburban voters toward us. That means hitting the environment repeatedly. This is the strategy that could win it for us, although this will be very tight.

Republican Party consultant Adam Newman offers this advice to the Bullard campaign: Seems to me we have an ultra-liberal running here. Her positions on affirmative action are well outside the mainstream, and her positions on high taxes and high spending are typical of failed liberal policies. We've got to hammer home these points to the suburbs. And, we have to go to the urban part of the district and hammer home the fact that Rodriguez is pro-choice; this is at odds with her core constituency. If we can pull this coalition apart a little bit, we can win. We don't need to win the city. If all we do is cut her margins slightly, or depress turnout there, this one is ours.

How to Teach this Case
This is a fun case for anybody who enjoys ideology and policy debates. This case allows a teacher to get students talking about and debating issues. Abortion, affirmative action, the environment, and income redistribution (taxes) are prominently featured in this case. There is no scandal to get in the way here - successful campaigns will use issue positions both to try and energize their own voters and to try to pull away voters from the other party. The campaign is also expected to be so close that students can really feel things are up for grabs.

This campaign also may allow for issues related to career politicians and term limits to be raised. Students can be asked to think about arguments for and against congressional term limits (and career politicians in general). This issue does not have to be a major part of the campaign; certainly, Rodriguez would never want to bring it up. But, a nice subtext here could be a citizen-legislator arguing for why that is good versus a career politician arguing for the benefits of experience.